Texas — The Lone Star State’s population boom is projected to continue for decades, potentially adding roughly 11 million more residents by 2060 under a mid-range state projection.
Texas had an estimated 31.7 million residents in 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. New projections from the Texas Demographic Center show the population could grow substantially over the next 35 years.
Texas Population Projections for 2060:
• Low-migration scenario — 40.3 million
• Mid-migration scenario — 42.6 million
• High-migration scenario — 46.2 million
The Texas Demographic Center recommends its mid-migration scenario for most planning purposes, which would put the state at approximately 42.6 million residents by 2060.
Texas is already moving rapidly in that direction.
The Census Bureau estimates the state added approximately 391,000 residents between July 2024 and July 2025 — the largest numerical population increase of any state in the country.
Texas Metros Driving Growth
Much of the state’s recent expansion has been concentrated around major metropolitan areas.
Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth have each been adding well over 100,000 residents annually in recent Census estimates, while the Austin region has continued experiencing significant percentage growth.
Texas has already grown from approximately 29.1 million people at the 2020 Census to an estimated 31.7 million in 2025.
Could Texas Eventually Pass California?
A separate population projection from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center suggests Texas could eventually become the nation’s most populous state.
That analysis projects Texas could reach approximately 41.2 million residents by 2050, compared with about 38.6 million in California — potentially putting Texas ahead of California sometime between 2040 and 2050.
Population forecasts are not guarantees. Future migration, birth and death rates, economic conditions and other factors could significantly change how quickly Texas grows.
Still, both current Census estimates and long-term projections point in the same direction: millions more people could call Texas home in the decades ahead.